Under Trump, the US and China may be greater friends than ever

According to this approach, strategic empathy is key. This entails cognitive empathy, affective empathy and the ability to cultivate a sense of harmony and reduced distrust. Cognitive empathy requires understanding the unique perspectives, motivations, history and strategic culture of other nations, while affective empathy means the two global superpowers resonate over similar feelings, fostering sympathy and deepening connections to nurture positive meaningful relationships. Much like a warring couple seeking marital counselling, strategic empathy encourages all parties to consider contentious issues from their opponents’ viewpoints, experiences and emotions.

This framework integrates both rational analysis and emotional engagement, offering a constructive path toward reducing tensions, easing geopolitical tensions and fostering collaboration.

It is worth noting that significant obstacles always hinder the progression from empathy to sympathy, and the transition from sympathy to fostering genuine friendliness is particularly challenging.

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger exemplified this progression of understanding and engagement when he began negotiations with China in 1971. He began with a foundational level of empathy rooted in a realist perspective, then approached issues with sympathy, wisdom and detachment, considering the circumstances and motivations of both sides.

Ultimately, Kissinger reached a profound, third level of understanding and connection with China, where he came to be honoured as an old friend of the Chinese people.

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Trump’s so-called “great common sense” appears capable of fostering a form of strategic empathy with China. But one of the key challenges he and his team will face upon entering the Oval Office is managing and balancing the competing interests of those within his inner circle such as billionaire industrialist Elon Musk, who advocates for deepening economic engagement with China, driven by both his business interests and broader political aspirations.

Yet, Musk’s political manoeuvring, such as his recent interventions in UK and German politics, adds complexity to Trump’s efforts to navigate international affairs. Meanwhile, the priority for Washington hawks like Matt Pottinger, a former deputy national security advisor during Trump’s first term, and former representative Mike Gallagher, is achieving a US “victory” through policies aimed at countering China. Some even advocate for granting Taiwan full diplomatic recognition. Balancing these divergent agendas will test the administration’s strategic and diplomatic acumen.

Both Trump and Xi are expected to attend international forums such as the G20 Summit in Johannesburg in November, which creates an opportunity for a meeting.

Whether their dialogue can foster a candid exchange that addresses longstanding ideological differences in a fresh, innovative, and peaceful manner remains uncertain. Certainly, such an engagement would test their political resolve, strategic wisdom, and ability to transcend deeply rooted ideological divides.

While Trump and Xi may have achieved a degree of strategic empathy – perhaps reaching only the early stages – significant challenges remain in translating their decisions into actionable outcomes, especially when ideological reconciliation encounters strong domestic opposition.

Professor Baogang He is Distinguished Professor and personal chair in international relations at Deakin University, and the co-author of China’s Galaxy Empire.

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