McCrae landslide expected to worsen as storms loom, endangering more homes

Daw said the landslip had moved a further two millimetres overnight.

He said council assessors tested the hillside after a smaller landslip a week ago, but was surprised by the size of Tuesday’s collapse.

“Unfortunately, what they didn’t think was going to happen, happened,” he said.

Daw said the SES previously responded to smaller landslides in the local area, “but nothing of this scale, this is a whole new thing for us”.

Melbourne IT entrepreneur Nick Moran owned the three-storey Penny Lane home – purchased for $2.1 million in 2023 – that was destroyed on Tuesday. He said his wife and daughter narrowly escaped another 30-tonne landslip that damaged the house a week earlier.

“I know everyone goes through stuff and doesn’t necessarily get a positive outcome but on this occasion, I know how bloody lucky we are,” he said in a LinkedIn post about the previous incident.

Several neighbours told this masthead that they had pleaded with Mornington Peninsula Shire and South East Water for years to address water issues near their homes.

Professor David Kennedy, an expert in physical geography from Melbourne University, said parts of McCrae and nearby Mount Martha were vulnerable to landslides.

“It’s an old sea cliff that they’ve built on. It would probably be 5000 to 6000 years old, that’s why it’s already very steep,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy said the cliff was cut into granite rock that was old, weathered, and broke down to a coarse, unstable sandy clay. Once a large volume of water was added – either via a major rainfall or groundwater flowing underground – it could cause a landslide, he said.

“That recent rain event would definitely have lubricated everything really well,” Kennedy said, referring to a major downpour during a storm on Sunday.

He added it was also likely, based on witness reports that water was flowing from the ground, that underground water was also involved.

On other occasions, Kennedy said he had seen soak holes – a hole under a property on a slope used to capture rainwater drainage – contribute to landslides, particularly after heavy rain.

with Adam Carey and Angus Delaney

Get alerts on significant breaking news as it happens. Sign up for our Breaking News Alert.