First snow of season for some as Arctic air to sweep in across UK
Free forecast models from a range of organisations are publicly available so sometimes a single model run, for weather some time away, ends up being the basis for some excitable headlines predicting snow.
It is important to remember when we look at these headlines that weather forecasting is a tricky science and long range forecasts are not always reliable.
While there have been huge improvements over decades, we know that forecast accuracy decreases the further out you go.
We also use a variety of different weather forecast data from the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office and the American Global Forecast System to name a few.
Because each of these models uses different maths and physics, the forecasts they provide may start to diverge over time, showing different outcomes.
This is especially the case for a forecast beyond five to seven days.
To therefore suggest a forecast of a large amount of snow hitting the UK in 10 days time based on one model at one time is very misleading, particularly if other forecast models do not show the same thing.
Now, I am not saying that one model run is wrong or the forecast given is “fake news” as there is a chance it could be accurate.
However, as meteorologists we need to look at all the data, understand the uncertainties, and suggest the most likely forecast.
The one thing I can absolutely guarantee, though, is that as we enter winter, you will read and see a lot more about snow in the coming weeks and months.
